Posted September 29, 20222 yr Liz’s premiership seems to have gone off to a disastrous start seems unlikely at this point that she will last for as long as Boris and Theresa beforehand when do we reckon her time is up? I reckon Rishi or Boris will be back by this time next year, so I guess 6-9 months.
September 29, 20222 yr I can’t decide between not long or too long or both. She’s lucky the Queen died when she did.
September 29, 20222 yr Less than 6 months, until soon after the new year. Boris absolutely will not be back, that is total delusion.
September 29, 20222 yr I've said 6 months just cos it's pretty unpredecented otherwise, but I may well be being generous at this rate! Not a chance she's making the next election. Boris will try again, I'm sure and they are scummy enough to actually bring him back despite all he did, but I like to think it won't work this time as he's too divisive in his party and lost public support, they'll probably default to Sunak, but the writing's on the wall.
September 29, 20222 yr If there was an option in between 12 months - 2 years I would have voted for that. I went for 2 years in that case, when the next general election takes place.
September 29, 20222 yr I think a lot will depend on the conference this week, would suggest if any of you live in Tory constituencies you just start bombarding your MP. The MPs know they are toast on fighting a losing battle you'd think, but if she does go then it would be through a general election - I can't see how they could survive changing leader again without a general election and if that happened they would get floored. Right now she is completely fuked.
September 29, 20222 yr Compared to the last (and only prior) Norfolk MP to be PM, I think this might be one of the shorter stints as PM that we have seen. 3-6 months here. The other Norfolk MP to be PM (generally regarded as the first PM) was Robert Walpole who lasted just over 20 years. This was back in the 18th century.
September 29, 20222 yr 6 months as a conservative guess!!! If she doesn't back down on her tax cuts after the IMF have stepped in, I wouldn't be surprised if she really doesn't make it to New Year.
September 30, 20222 yr I have a feeling she'll have a short stay to be replaced by Rishi who will then usher in a big budget reversing a lot of the major bad things Liz has done in her current budget - whilst quietly keeping all the planned cuts. I'd expect him to reverse tax cuts, perhaps even raise taxes slightly, whilst slashing public services. Essentially austerity in all but name. Edited September 30, 20222 yr by Envoirment
September 30, 20222 yr Question is who will replace her? There is no way Boris will come back. I can’t see Truss lasting long if the economy continues to deteriorate. I think we’ll end up with a general election.
September 30, 20222 yr 6 months I think. I think there will be a general election in 2023 instead 2024.
September 30, 20222 yr There’s a lot of talk of letters flooding in. She might not even make it to November
September 30, 20222 yr I heard that the Tory rules prevent a new leader from being officially challenged in their first year but it would be symbolic. Heard rumours that some Tory MPs will vote with Labour to defeat the budget - although they tend to be spineless group so wouldn't necessarily count on it. But there will be immense pressure on them anyhow.
September 30, 20222 yr I heard that the Tory rules prevent a new leader from being officially challenged in their first year but it would be symbolic. Heard rumours that some Tory MPs will vote with Labour to defeat the budget - although they tend to be spineless group so wouldn't necessarily count on it. But there will be immense pressure on them anyhow. Current rules do prevent a contest until next September. However, those rules can be changed very easily.
October 20, 20222 yr Author final results How long will she be leader 3 months [ 5 ] ** [17.24%] 6 months [ 11 ] ** [37.93%] 12 months [ 5 ] ** [17.24%] 2 years [ 5 ] ** [17.24%] 3 years + [ 3 ] ** [10.34%] Total Votes: 31 well done to the five of you who predicted three months although as it turns out she didn’t even make it that far. Silas was really bang on the money especially.
October 20, 20222 yr Well this was an optimistic poll. I think I chose 3 months because I honestly felt she wouldn’t be able to do the job.
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