That is, if something is predicted to Q or to NQ, do people reading that think "well, I shouldn't vote for that if it's not expected to Q", or alternatively "I'll defy that NQ prediction by throwing that one some votes!"

 

It might be kind of interesting to do some kind of analysis of how predicted Qs and NQs match up with what actually happened across the contests!

I don't think so, but I don't actively check everybody's votes unless they are predictions for myself. I tend to do my own predictions based on my own feelings, but not based on if some countries get lots of DNQ's. I think it is a case of thinking "what does the history tell me about this nation's success" vs "what do I think of this song and would I choose to play it again in the future."

The predictions thread doesn't get even close to the level of engagement as it used to so this isn't really the time to start worrying about it even if it did have some minor psychological effect on people's votes tbh. (which I doubt it does x)

I really don't think it has any impact to me personally because in all honesty, every time I check the thread I only count how many are predicting me to Q or DNQ :kink: #selfish.

THEY ARE

 

HYPE TRAINS ARE WHAT WIN OR LOSE THisAaaa

I can't say I have ever given fewer points to something because it appears overhyped, as at the end of the day it's just a set of predictions, nobody is forcing anyone to vote for something and the votes may not always follow through, so it's always best to back your favourites no matter how much or little hype they have.

 

I guess I can see in the semis though that if something that you love has blanket DNQ predictions, you might be inclined to give it more points to try and help it qualify. I often vote earlier than many of the predictions are posted, though, so I can't say I'm swayed by them personally.

Edited July 25, 20231 yr by gooddelta

I always think about it, especially when sending weak stuff. That's why I don't open Odds / Predix threads and cast my predictions before deadline anymore.

I will occasionally give it a quick check over what general thoughts are about my entry and see what’s what but often that’s before I’ve even listened and then I’ve forgotten about it by the time I vote.

 

 

I do look at it but I don’t think it’s usually anywhere near my mind when it comes to voting.

 

I can remember one instance a long time ago now where there were two clear leaders in the predictions thread and I deliberately didn’t vote for one because I loved the other so much… the reason I remember it is I felt like I’d potentially stopped the other from winning because they ended up very close but with my preferred choice winning. Can’t think of any other occasion where it’s influenced me.

I do look at it but I don’t think it’s usually anywhere near my mind when it comes to voting.

 

I can remember one instance a long time ago now where there were two clear leaders in the predictions thread and I deliberately didn’t vote for one because I loved the other so much… the reason I remember it is I felt like I’d potentially stopped the other from winning because they ended up very close but with my preferred choice winning. Can’t think of any other occasion where it’s influenced me.

 

OMG spill

I have a resistant personality and would rather support the underdog a lot of the time :lol:

I do look at it but I don’t think it’s usually anywhere near my mind when it comes to voting.

 

I can remember one instance a long time ago now where there were two clear leaders in the predictions thread and I deliberately didn’t vote for one because I loved the other so much… the reason I remember it is I felt like I’d potentially stopped the other from winning because they ended up very close but with my preferred choice winning. Can’t think of any other occasion where it’s influenced me.

 

Haha we NEED to know what songs! :lol:

After some of the shocks this month (not my own) I do think that the concept of odds and predictions are a little impractical now in the modern BJSC contest.

 

The thing is, especially for a newly joined participant, they have no experience in the contest, no reference point, no guide on how to be successful in the contest, that they see what songs are predicted to do well and they may then go chasing after hits that match the predictions of others hoping that will achieve them some success. Then when they follow their own guidance by sending the song they think will do well, based upon previous results and predictions posted, they start to see predictions for their own entries and perhaps some of them are positive and give a sense of confidence that they made the right choice... only to find that when the results come, the predictions posted weren't correct, and the hope they had of doing well has shattered before them... again.

 

This might not be the reality for everyone who decides to take part in this voluntary forum activity, but the sheer expense of energy, concentration, research and time spent to find that "winning" entry that can, at the very least, qualify, is something that truly does take its toll on some members. It's why on a serious note I question whether making monthly predictions is wise because it isn't scientifically proven that the majority of predictions will always be right, and if that's what ones are basing their hopes on, then really the predictions thread serves no purpose but to tear down such members when they realise their fate later on.

 

I've often posted predictions because it felt fun to do, but in fact I've come to realise that by doing so, I'm playing a part in building up the hopes of other participants and I don't actually know what's going to do well or not so there's really no point in posting such speculative forecasts.

 

This message is for everyone who's felt that feeling of being "spent" from giving their all to the cause and getting nothing back in return. This is for those who are at the end of their toll and walking away from the event because they feel unappreciated and untrained in how to deal with the feeling of rejection time and time again because they aren't allowed to be represented in a BJSC final.

 

I feel your pain and I hate that you feel this way. But if I had qualified this month it would have felt like a very biased thing for me to post, but the fact I also DNQ'd (without complaint because I was due a final out) I just want to share a virtual hug with those who feel constantly misunderstood and can't find their place in this territory.

 

I think odds and predictions should be scrapped indefinitely for the part they play in causing some such anxiety.

I, for one, enjoy the odds and predictions threads, it’s just harmless fun. And if you are voting for songs that you like based on that metric alone (which is what you should be doing) then the threads have literally no bearing on the results of the contest.

 

The problem lays with “hit-chasing”. If you’re in this contest, especially as a newbie, solely to win …then you’re in it for the wrong reason. We all love a bit of competition, and yes it’s rewarding when a song that you love does well, but the objective of the BJSC is inherently to share and discover new music. Of course it’s also a way of bringing the spirit of the Eurovision Song Contest into your own home all-year round.

 

Can it be disheartening if a song you love doesn’t receive the same love from others in the contest? Yes. Can it be demotivating if you experience a DNQ streak? Of course. But don’t take it personally. If that happens, the reality of the matter is simply that your entry did not connect with as many people as you would have liked it to and that’s nobody’s fault.

 

As already stated, the contest is voluntary. It literally has no stakes. It occurs once a month, so if you get bored or feel uninspired there’s always another edition just around the corner. It’s getting quite tiring seeing all of these think-pieces pop up every few weeks because someone is disappointed that they didn’t qualify, or another person is pissed off that they were vetoed. I’m not saying that the process should be immune to tweaks and immalleable …but I can only imagine how the mods must feel having to see it an increasing rate as-of-late when the discourse (the majority of the time) seems to be coming from those who have just suffered a loss.

 

The more participants there are the better I think, but if you need a break - take it. If you disagree with a placement - voice it! Nobody’s stopping you. But calling for rule changes, questioning the influence of trivial things etc etc is not going to make anyone start performing better. If they stopped bookies from allowing bets on the Eurovision I don’t think San Marino would suddenly swoop in with a winner! :P

On a practical level, having given it some further thought, what if predictions were anonymous, only revealed once the voting window is closed so it would have no bearing on the outcome of the results. It could even be something some may choose to send along with their votes to the host when they vote, and then at the host's discretion can post their predictions at the start of the results thread just before the actual results are revealed.

 

Not saying this necessarily solves anything but it's a different approach to consider that might be worth trialling.

I hope newer participants realize that Odds/Predictions are just a supplemental part of BJSC, no one's required to post in or even read the Odds/Predictions thread. I personally avoid the thread until after the results because I prefer being oblivious to what my entry's chances are (or, more accurately, what people think its chances are), and also because I prefer compiling my votes with no knowledge of who the predicted contenders are. That's my own choice, I'm not suggesting it for anyone else, but it's worked well for me over the past 10 years.

 

That said, I do read the Odds/Predictions (just after the results) and appreciate the effort people put into them! I wouldn't like to take that away from those who enjoy it and I'm not sure it's necessary to discontinue it tbh.

 

Just know there's different options for how much, or how little to engage in the contest and still enjoy it. Take it from me, I've DNQd 51 times and yet am still here :kink:

I find the odds threads just add to the BJSC fun and experience tbh — they’re subjective, often way off-base, and can't really impact results with so many nations involved.

 

Of course, it’s disappointing not to qualify (especially with a song you love) but placing any kind of significant blame on something as innocuous as the predictions thread (or even the veto process) seems a tad unwarranted.

I would say that odds and predictions have always been a part of discussion and activity here ever since the fifth contest, when we broke out of an initial quagmire and the contest really got going as a proper forum event.

 

If people don't predict stuff on here, they will only share their predictions instead on the listenthroughs etc. I think speculation is part and parcel of these kinds of things, it's the same with Club Bizarre and Unknown Pleasures etc - people always tip the songs that will do well. And in Eurovision, betting and speculation is what drives a large part of the community and discussion.

 

One thing I will say is that I stopped making the predictions in the semis a few years ago, for two reasons. Firstly, I decided I didn't want to be the person to potentially make people feel unhappy (as I know getting blanket DNQ predictions is a bitter pill to swallow), and secondly - I just find BJSC way more unpredictable than it ever used to be. So these predictions and odds have even less of a basis in any kind of reality than they ever did before. Look at Semi Sue this month - I think one prediction had 75% incorrect DNQs. And my own predictions wouldn't have been any better! The quality of this contest has gone through the roof over the years, so it's often hard to pinpoint even two songs per semi that sound like definite no-hopers. So I just don't attempt to guess.

 

I do offer odds most months, but not until the final, and also quite often I only will predict a top 15/20, and not all the way down. Because I don't think people want to know if they're predicted to come last or whatever, even though it can be fun when you significantly outperform a predicted low finish.

 

Essentially though, people giving odds and predictions know no better what will do well than anybody else. It's just kind of an educated guess based on hype, discussion, what people loved on the listenthroughs (which also is misrepresentative because pop voters are not present for those in their droves usually), and of course personal taste creeps into it. So many times I've looked at somebody's odds and thought 'wow, they have that unexpectedly high' and then you look at their vote later on and they gave it 18 or 15 points etc. I do it myself every month, and I'm sure others do too, of course we will be influenced by our own love of something and hope that others feel the same way about it.

 

The last two months though my predicted winners have come 10th and 14th so clearly they don't hold any weight. I don't think they do really influence what people vote for.

I guess if odds and predictions were right most of the time it would carry more weight but they mean nothing nowadays.

 

I think I'm going to follow your example Rich and avoid predicting Q's and DNQ's to avoid potentially upsetting people based on my clueless knowledge of what is actually going to do well that month.

 

Everyone else can decide for themselves what they want to do but in the spirit of the contest maybe it's time to rethink how it's delivered and maybe a disclaimer is needed stating that there are just that - predictions - and that they shouldn't be taken literally as anything could happen that's out of everyone else's control.

Sorry if this is going to sound like a rant

 

From my personal point of view I would do away with predictions. I've had more Q predictions in the last few contests than non-Q predictions and yet I have failed to Q every time. Even the time I qualified, I qualified in 18th position and then somehow came 15th in the final.

 

It's hard not to take this personally - e.g. if my song sounds like a qualifier but I don't qualify, does that mean people don't like me in general? I know that may seem dramatic.