... before we're stuck with another General Election? :(

Less than a year, which would make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

Less than a year, which would make a mockery of the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

 

Again! :rolleyes:

 

I bet the Tories will be desperate to push through those boundary changes now - I suspect they'd have won yesterday if they'd already have happened...

Edited June 9, 20178 yr by vidcapper

After Brexit. I imagine 2020.

6months. depends on how much they are willing to go for soft Brexit now, and keep on eating that humble pie. :lol:

I think an election to coincide with the German elections is a possibility. However, the Tories won't be too keen on the idea of another election with May at the helm. Perhaps they'll vote against an early dissolution :lol:

I fear if a new Tory leader emerges over the next year we could have one soon enough and could be a bigger majority if they install a popular leader!

I'm going for 2022. Another election would weaken the conservatives further, so don't think they'd want to risk it, especially with brexit negotiations coming up.

Yeah, see I think she'll just stick it out now, at least until 2020 when Brexit has happened and things are a bit more stable. With the DUP buoyance, she has her majority anyway, it might be a bit difficult as they clash on welfare but I don't think the parties differ enough for it to cause more of a stir than the election disaster already did. If she's not gonna leave from that, I can't see her leaving if she's challenged on welfare a bit.

As long as it's after 23rd December 2017 I'll be fine ;)

Yeah, see I think she'll just stick it out now, at least until 2020 when Brexit has happened and things are a bit more stable. With the DUP buoyance, she has her majority anyway, it might be a bit difficult as they clash on welfare but I don't think the parties differ enough for it to cause more of a stir than the election disaster already did. If she's not gonna leave from that, I can't see her leaving if she's challenged on welfare a bit.

 

After looking up about it, NI has devolved powers in reards to Social and Health services/Housing/Social security/Education etc - Link. So the Tory government could reduce the triple lock to a double lock and make free school meals means tested in England quite readily without affecting NI. Unless I'm understanding NI's position wrongly.

No chance this government lasts until 2022. I thought 2015 would be tough to make it to 5 years with such a slim majority, they've now lost almost two-thirds of that majority even IF the DUP toe the line as if they were Tories, a hard ask in of itself. They and rebellious backbenchers will frustrate the weak-looking government, and one major falling out and it's gone. The coming years will have more than their fair share of opportunities for that to happen.

After looking up about it, NI has devolved powers in reards to Social and Health services/Housing/Social security/Education etc - Link. So the Tory government could reduce the triple lock to a double lock and make free school meals means tested in England quite readily without affecting NI. Unless I'm understanding NI's position wrongly.

Nothing is devolved to NI at the moment because there is no administration.

Indeed, the DUP are frustrating efforts to install a new power sharing government at Stormont so they are facing the prospect of Direct Rule (which would suit the DUP as part of the Tory administration) or a 3rd Assembly election since 2015.

I've a few points/questions - will the DUP sit on the government benches?

 

How many by-elections were there between 2015-17? Quite a few from memory - each one during this parliament will be hugely impacting.

Surely any Secretary of State for NI will surely not be able to chair talks on the restoration of stormont - not that a Tory SOS would ever have been neutral as history has shown.

 

No chance this government lasts until 2022. I thought 2015 would be tough to make it to 5 years with such a slim majority, they've now lost almost two-thirds of that majority even IF the DUP toe the line as if they were Tories, a hard ask in of itself. They and rebellious backbenchers will frustrate the weak-looking government, and one major falling out and it's gone. The coming years will have more than their fair share of opportunities for that to happen.

I'm not so sure that rebellious backbenchers will make their voices heard given what has happened to the Labour party in the last two years and knowing full well that any dissent will lead to an easy wipeout. Let's see what the likes of Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke and (non-MP) George Osborne have to say. The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions. It's very telling just how quickly they've been able to form a government when you compare it to 2010.

 

I can't stand the thought of the Tories lasting until 2022, but if they do it will be because they have governed well (more on their own terms and their 13.5 million voters than our terms or other parties...). Now that we've shown that appetite for a hard right government isn't particularly strong, especially on economic issues, then a strong and stable (!) government might not be the end of the world. Tory hubris in the face of an emboldened opposition can't cause them to make a third mistake, right?

The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions.

 

The Conservatives do stand candidates against the DUP in Northern Ireland, but it's unlikely for them to win more than a handful of votes over here.

I went for 12-17 months.

I'm not so sure that rebellious backbenchers will make their voices heard given what has happened to the Labour party in the last two years and knowing full well that any dissent will lead to an easy wipeout. Let's see what the likes of Anna Soubry, Ken Clarke and (non-MP) George Osborne have to say. The DUP will be much easier to reign in given that they've essentially been an extension of the Tories for a long time. The two parties don't even compete with each other for seats, which already makes them fundamentally different to other coalitions. It's very telling just how quickly they've been able to form a government when you compare it to 2010.

 

I can't stand the thought of the Tories lasting until 2022, but if they do it will be because they have governed well (more on their own terms and their 13.5 million voters than our terms or other parties...). Now that we've shown that appetite for a hard right government isn't particularly strong, especially on economic issues, then a strong and stable (!) government might not be the end of the world. Tory hubris in the face of an emboldened opposition can't cause them to make a third mistake, right?

 

We'll see. If you're right that would be good but they're going to have to be very careful about what they put forward for a vote, equally, as well as being afraid, each backbencher will have quite a bit of power in their hands should they choose to use it, and I don't think beyond the short-term that there's going to be unwavering loyalty to May, they'll surely not want her to fight the next election so as the halfway point approaches would be the absolute limit on her premiership I'd say, and the appointing of a replacement itself would cause some instability. However if she goes peacefully and a well-liked replacement comes in to hold it together, I'd say it has a better chance.

It was said that the speed at which the tories and Dup have formed a government compared to 2010 is telling - I think the opposite it seems they have obviously just agreed to support the PMs Queens Speech/budget by the speed things happened and it can't be compared to 2010 because it isn't a formal coalition government it's a minority government which is a completely different arrangement. As I said above they clearly have agreed to accept the Budget and that's it so I can imagine we will either have a zombie administration that has a lame duck PM who tried to pass very little administration and just focuses on brexit negotiations because anything which creates debate has the potential to fall at party level with the need for agreement if the likes of Ken Clarke or Anna Soubrey for example or else will fall in the Lords dominated by non tories.