The Tories will probably have a younger dynamic leader by then though and be reaping the rewards of a successful Brexit with Covid just a distant memory. Write them off at your peril.

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

Covid will be well remembered I'm sure. We're still going to be dealing with it going into 2021 and potentially 2022 as well. There'll likely be many reminders about what a mess the government made of the situation when the election campaign begins.

 

And a successful brexit? I hardly believe that given the prospect of a no deal is very high and the amount of money the government has wasted on it so far. It's going to be a mess as well, I'm sure.

 

We're still yet to feel most of the negative economic effects from COVID as well. There will be many hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs over the coming 6-12 months unforutnately.

'Brexit' and 'successful' in the same sentence. The delusion is real.

Rumours that in a poll out tonight Labour have taken the lead over the Conservatives for the first time since June 2019.

 

@1309930873068945408

:cheeseblock:

@1309932848179228676

 

And the rest of that poll. 6% for the SNP is wild. Scotland is only 8.4% of the electorate. Assume the Scottish subsample is small as usual which will impact that but that’s up from the 4% we usually get (50% of the electorate)

So the SNP would be on 55-57 out of 59 seats if the GE occurred now then?

 

INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM ASAP SNP PLEASE

From memory, it’s Ian bloody Murray and 58 SNP MPs. Think we could poll 8% and Ian Murray would still cling on

The Labour poll could be a rogue one so will need to see if it is in line with any future polls, although Labour have been trending upwards for the last few months.

 

Whilst it's a fools errand to speculate at this stage, I do think that there will be a General Election sooner than the 2024 mandated in the Fixed Term Parliament Act - I do think there will be some fissures in the Tories between now and then that could cause them to lose their majority and take things back to the general public, there have been a few rumblings in the party the past few months.

It'll take more than just 'some fissures' for them to lose the giant majority they have currently though. I just can't see it happening.

 

SNP polling ahead of the Lib Dems is... quite something!

I'd analyse that as: Single issue governments like the Conservative one that have made supporting them an identity above nearly all else will cause a tendency towards polarisation, Labour's just managed to chip away enough people wanting sensibility and currently, there's only two games in town in England. But highest for Labour since 2018, which is good, and I'd guess that they'll hold steady. Lib Dems' route back will be difficult, they're trying to pivot away from being a Remain party and more a small goverment liberal party if things like their UBI announcement are any indication. Potentially a wedge route that could get voters from both sides, which is why they're doing it, but I can't see it getting them above 10% at least in the next 12 months.

 

my guess at predicting is that we'll next see a shift in the polls in January though, a failed Brexit seeing Conservative support ebb to a mix of Labour and Brexit Party (or whatever else Farage is planning to whip up support when the 'true Brexit' doesn't come through) but not drastically, at least initially, they'll go down to about 30% at the least.

 

Conservative government split, very unlikely but the new intake of Brexiteer MPs are ideologically-driven and could well go loose cannon enough to try and get some concessions.

my guess at predicting is that we'll next see a shift in the polls in January though, a failed Brexit seeing Conservative support ebb to a mix of Labour and Brexit Party (or whatever else Farage is planning to whip up support when the 'true Brexit' doesn't come through) but not drastically, at least initially, they'll go down to about 30% at the least.

 

This dogshit, potentially?

 

@1309971932926836737

 

I said in here months ago that there is currently quite a high 'floor' for the tories until Brexit happens, I do think there needs to be another part of the right to take 2-3% away from them, but whatever that party ends up looking like I'd find utterly appalling.

Boris will probably be replaced by Rishi very soon into 2021 - it feels like that’s always been the plan and if Labour take a regular lead in polls, that will speed things up!

Brexit really is just the Thatcherite right trying to undo the social and cultural gains of the post war era since they won the economic battles in the late 20th cebtury

I'm not surprised at the abysmal polls for the Lib Dems, they made themselves into a single issue party and now their position on that issue has pretty much zero chance of happening. Nice to see Labour in front (compared to the alternative) but I can't see the Tories going much below 40% with their Brexit base. A Lawrence F*** off party might be useful actually if he could take some votes off the Tories

We have seen how the Tories are able to convince people that it's an entirely new government with each cabinet and leadership change — and it'll happen again with Rishi Sunak. It doesn't really matter who they're turning off now when they'll likely be seen as sensible again with him at the helm.

 

 

I said in here months ago that there is currently quite a high 'floor' for the tories until Brexit happens, I do think there needs to be another part of the right to take 2-3% away from them, but whatever that party ends up looking like I'd find utterly appalling.

 

Agreed. As has been the case since about 2017, which is why it is completely infuriating to have had 2017-2019 with the centrists whinging incessantly "but Labour should be 20 points ahead in the polls", now replaced with "Starmer is an UTTER GENIUS for getting the parties back to level pegging, masterful" with no sense of irony whatsoever.

 

Seriously these people lack so much self awareness.

 

They don’t even care though DB they just wanted to ‘defeat’ what they believe is the evil or Corbyn - they actually have more in common with the Tory party than they do with the SCG in their own party.

They don’t even care though DB they just wanted to ‘defeat’ what they believe is the evil or Corbyn - they actually have more in common with the Tory party than they do with the SCG in their own party.

 

Yes, two parties with basically the same agenda guaranteed to form a majority so that no matter how we vote, fundamentally nothing ever changes.

 

Don't get me started on Change UK !! Those UTTER MELTS that voted AGAINST a customs union in April 2019.

Except when the right of the Tory party changes the agenda and decides to push to leave the Eu!

Except when the right of the Tory party changes the agenda and decides to push to leave the Eu!

 

Bounced into it by Farage though... for a man who has contested in 7 failed attempts to get into Parliament he has effectively changed the history of this country more than any other elected official in over 40 years.

 

Anyway for balance - here's another poll:

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 42% (-2)

LAB: 38% (-)

LDEM: 6% (-1)

 

via @DeltapollUK 24 - 25 Sep Chgs. w/ 10 Jul

 

Looks like the Lib Dems could be overtaken by the Greens as well as the SNP soon!