This is a one party state for all intents and ourposes. Do not expect miracles and expect 100- 200 years of hard tory rule.

Wasn't the newspaper headline a hit back at the tories for their press releases about lifting lockdown which turned out to be wrong, seems a little strange for the Torygraph to jump on board so quickly❓

Britain Elects

@britainelects

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 46% (-2)

LAB: 33% (+3)

LDEM: 8% (-)

GRN: 4% (-1)

 

via @Survation

, 22 - 26 May

Chgs. w/ 28 Apr

 

 

Not much evidence of a cut through here but possibly this is the start of a trend ?

 

However.. quite a significant drop in approval of both Boris Johnson and the Conservatives:

 

@1265206072794648576

@1265396449635942400

 

Well, damn.

Ok, I spoke too soon - looks like this IS cutting through in a big way. Hard to see them keeping Cummings on if this continues...

 

As I said in the other thread, once the trust goes - hard to see it rebuilt. Given the collapse of the economy and the unexploded bomb of Brexit this could be a cataclysmic year for the Conservatives.

@1265410670075445249

 

I really want PeaceMob to come back :(

Surprised at how quickly the Conservatives seem to be losing ground. Keir Starmer has generally done a good job though and a lot of relatives/friends of mine who weren't supporting labour due to "IMAGINE JEREMY CORBYN IN POWER" type reasons seem to be liking him somewhat. With the stigma of Corbyn gone and the current mess, I can see Labour support increasing a lot. We have yet to hit the real hard hitting parts though. Once the furlough scheme ends - how many people will actually be going back to a job? Then there's Brexit later this year.

@1266806274123075584

 

It looks like a mixture of Cummings' undoing and Labour having a competent leader seems to be narrowing the gap. Labour will likely have a lead in opinion polls by the end of next month.

Wonderful News!

 

I do think the UK has a generally progressive majority since the new century started, the tories have been in power since 2010 but they've only turkey had a majority since December!

Going from winning a comfortable majority to a lead of just four points in less than six months is quite an achievement. To do so having convinced a lot of people that the PM nearly died makes it even more impressive.

An interesting different kind of opinion poll to the ones that usually get posted here. Every week, Populous asks what the biggest story the general public noticed in that week. Last week, 52% were aware of the Dominic Cummings story, demonstrating just how massively it cut through. The below shows %s for similar political controversies over the past few years to put that into context - I'm quite surprised that the Pig thing was so low, but I'm guessing it didn't get reported as much at the time owing to potential libel issues.

 

@1267450828429934594

Pig-gate deserves more recognition.

 

A truly iconic moment and feels more synonymous with Cameron than the Panama Papers scandal.

Latest Scottish Independence Referendum opinion poll (normal caveats, just 1 opinion poll, needs to be seen in the context of other polls to make sure it's not a rogue one etc -)

 

@1269184848926781440

 

The cursed ratio strikes again.

When we rightly end the UK, I hope the process will be more conciliatory than with the leaders who implement Brexit but that the margin will also be a lot more decisive than that.

Change is with the previous panel base poll that showed 50/50. The most beautiful thing about it is that it came out the same day as the Scottish Labour leader said there was no appetite for Scottish independence. *chefs kiss*

 

In case anyone was wondering why labour are done in Scotland, that’s a pretty good example

Latest Survation-

 

@1269328225437704195

 

Labour closing in now.

Tbh, it says a lot about the Labour Party that they're still not ahead of the Tories given everything, I know they will be soon probably but it really should've happened already. My party can't relate.

Tbh, it says a lot about the Labour Party that they're still not ahead of the Tories given everything, I know they will be soon probably but it really should've happened already. My party can't relate.

 

I think it says a lot about how tribal people still are - since Boris Johnson has become leader of the Conservative Party and turned it into the Brexit Party they have generally been above 40% and are unlikely to fall below this until Brexit is finally resolved (!) but certainly Dominic Cummings knew what he was doing when pushed for a GE in 2019 and doesn't really care if he destroys the Conservative party in the process.

 

@1269328315569102851

Support for the government generally holds up well in a (non-economic) crisis. The fact that they are only just ahead a mere six months after a comfortable election win is a reflection of just how badly they have handled it.

Support for the government generally holds up well in a (non-economic) crisis. The fact that they are only just ahead a mere six months after a comfortable election win is a reflection of just how badly they have handled it.

 

Definitely. Governments usually enjoy a boost after winning the GE and, as you said, during a crisis. You only have to look at how quickly people's opinions changed of how the government have handled the crisis to see how badly they've done.

 

I think one thing that'll potentially really hurt them is when the furlough scheme ends and many jobs are lost. Esepcially with Brexit "happening" at the end of the year. If the government are stupid enough to push ahead with a no deal exit, that'll add to the negative effects of the pandemic on the economy.