So it's now looking very likely that the 21 June final set of lifting restrictions will be postponed due to the prevalence of the Indian variant. Shame for the live music/night club industry etc but despite some very loud protestations, the General public overwhelmingly want caution in terms of lifting restrictions.

 

Suspect they will do some form of half and half. I could see restrictions on weddings being lifted but seems a bit mad and reckless for other things. That said we were expected a third wave at some point and I think a lot of people at this point have just lost patience. The scrapping of masks in schools seems a bit mad though as I think it's the school ages where the biggest rises of infections are?

 

Think there comes a point when they're just going to have to open up, but right now we're just shooting darts in to black holes.

It probably impossible to impose properly on schools though!

We have this far largely kept the Indian variant out by controlling our borders, novel concept I know but still impressive given that Germany is bordered by land boarders like everywhere.

 

 

Tomorrow the state gov here in Berlin is meeting to confirm that they will bring forward a bunch of reopening because the numbers have fallen so much. Looks like inside dining will be a go from this weekend instead of the 18th

 

 

One reason they can do this is of course rapid testing. Hospitality has reopened, outside only currently, and non-essential Stores Are Open too and both have the dual requirement of contract tracing and negative tests. Essentially to do anything at the moment you need a negative test result. A negative rapid test result in Berlin is valid for 24h and you can get a free rapid test performed at one of over 1200 test centres across the City. Originally it was supposed to be a one a week thing but they never introduced monitoring for that and the state unofficially endorsed more frequent testing before openly saying you can get tested daily if you want/need to.

 

My work is also required by state law to give me two self-tests a week if I go into our office.

 

We got a lot wrong in The second/third wave but the rapid testing (an approach that is supported federally and is thus nationwide) system we have is just incredible. I assume it works similarly Germany wide, but the one in Berlin is remarkably good. We have a great website to find a centre and book if needed. There’s like 5 within a 5 min walk of my front door! I feel safer doing things like going to ikea or dining out here than I would at home because of the testing. But also because we have mandatory FFP2 masks in Berlin which are harder to wear incorrectly (tho I have seen folks somehow still manage to have their nose hanging out) and our mask compliance rate is extremely good

 

If you’re fully vaxxed (2 wks post dose 2) or recovered from the rona in last 6 months then your vax certificate (or positive pcr test for the recovered folks) can be shown instead of a negative test result as they’re exempt from the rule (only with documented proof)

I always thought all restrictions ending by 21 June was too optimistic and also pretty reckless, because even if it does at this stage, would that really be it? Given how bad last winter was, it could well go up again even with the vaccines and there'll likely be some form of restrictions or even local lockdowns reintroduced. I just really don't think all social distancing/mask restrictions being dropped entirely this year is sensible given we haven't dropped below 2000 cases a day yet even with the vaccine rollout.

 

I feel we at least need to see how things go over the winter before even thinking about dropping all social distancing rules. I don't think it's too much to ask wearing a mask and being cautious at some places. I'm aware businesses can struggle, but majority are now allowed to open at least!

The government will lose the public if they haven't already.

 

I'm still kind of incredulous at how poorly the UK has handled this.

The government will lose the public if they haven't already.

 

I'm still kind of incredulous at how poorly the UK has handled this.

 

I don't think they will lose the public as they haven't yet :lol: I think they have a Grace period of anywhere between 2-5 weeks post June 21st. If they came out and said they're waiting for all adults to have been offered 1 vaccine shot, or all adults to be fully vaccinated then I suspect that would be ok. The June 21st date was always optimistic, but that banked on AZ being able to be used for the full population.

 

The vaccines definitely break the chain of transmission. Lots of infections creeping up but it is still too hard to tell if the vulnerable as being admitted to hospital and dying still.

I think sadly it was inevitable that the 21 June date would be pushed back, but I don't think it'll be more than 2-3 weeks because all vulnerable groups are vaxxed and therefore hospitalisations and deaths are unlikely to spike even with an increase in transmission/spread among the unvaccinated but it seems like the school holidays would be the ideal time for the restrictions to be completely lifted to me.

The 21 June date was just to keep in line with this 5 week thing they were trying to stick to, no other reason why it was that specific date.

 

Shame as I would have a birthday free of restrictions but there is logic in waiting till schools out for summer.

The announcement is due on 14 June. The cynic in me says that he will announce on the 14th that the lifting of restrictions will go ahead but that the decision will be reversed over the weekend. After all, the Chesham byelection is on the 17th.

21st June was always an odd date given that we already knew everyone wouldn’t have had their first dose until the end of July. We need to wait for the 14th, by then we will know whether the rise in cases has translated to hospitalisations and deaths-which if they do would suggest the vaccine isn’t doing it’s job (which I doubt is the case.)

 

I think they should go ahead with some lifting of restrictions that day but perhaps not everything. Introduce a date in a further five weeks for everything else if necessary. I don’t even know why I care too much as Wales aren’t following that roadmap anyway.

For the stats fans, first time we've seen uptake broken down by age bands for the under 40s in England today:

 

@1400079678635876352

 

Very fast uptake in 30-39 given how it's not been open for very long!

Remarkably strong take up across all age bands really. Comfortably at the level that would give Heard- immunity once everyone who got the first dose has been double jagged.

For the stats fans, first time we've seen uptake broken down by age bands for the under 40s in England today:

 

@1400079678635876352

 

Very fast uptake in 30-39 given how it's not been open for very long!

 

My friend went to book an appointment the day they changed it to 30 and over and said she was in a queue of over 3,000 people to book an appointment. Uptake will be very high in all age groups - there are plenty of people who cannot wait to get their vaccine who haven't had the chance to do so yet (me for one! shouldn't be too long).

 

It's great to see the number of deaths continue to fall. I assume there won't be much change in the restriction lifting date - perhaps a few weeks until all adults are offered a vaccine.

There were a lot of reports saying that take-up among younger people would be low. It's very good to see that, so far, those forecasts look like being wrong.

There were a lot of reports saying that take-up among younger people would be low. It's very good to see that, so far, those forecasts look like being wrong.

 

It's wise they changed from AZ to Moderna/Pfizer otherwise I suspect that could have caused some real issues. I think part of it is young people are smart, all the big stuff everyone craves (festivals, gigs, events, even nightclubs) are probably going to have some form of vaccine passport. Did anyone catch the Dispatches anti-vaxx documentary on C4 earlier this week?

And now its in some of the newspaper websites about this new 'Nepal variant' which has reached Europe and 'scientists fear is resistant to vaccines' :drama:

Edited June 3, 20214 yr by sn👠ke

Did anyone catch the Dispatches anti-vaxx documentary on C4 earlier this week?

 

I did, although it didn't focus as much on the current anti-vax movement in relation to COVID as much as I would like it to, concentrating more on Andrew Wakefield and MMR, which is an important, eye-opening story, but one that I feel has been told so many times already. I do worry about these sorts of documentaries as they can inadvertently lead to larger audiences for some of the individuals portrayed (they shot quite a bit of footage with Piers Corbyn), but thankfully all his claims were put into the correct scientific contest.

And now its in some of the newspaper websites about this new 'Nepal variant' which has reached Europe and 'scientists fear is resistant to vaccines' :drama:

 

They say that every time a new variant is found just to scaremonger people.

Edited June 3, 20214 yr by Dobbo.

They say that every time a new variant is found just to scaremonger people.

 

Exactly this, they have said this for every new variant. Is there actually a likelihood of a variant being full resistant given it is just a variant of the virus that the vaccine has been developed t work against? I’m not completely clued up with virology so perhaps someone who is can give us more clarity?

Exactly this, they have said this for every new variant. Is there actually a likelihood of a variant being full resistant given it is just a variant of the virus that the vaccine has been developed t work against? I’m not completely clued up with virology so perhaps someone who is can give us more clarity?

My understanding is that it is possible that a variant might be resistant to one or more of the vaccines. However, the manufacturers seem confident that tweaking the vaccine to allow for that variant will be reasonably straightforward. After all, the do it with the4 flu vaccine more or less every year. Of course, that would still leave a lot of vaccinated people who are less safe than they were before.