I'd say that yes, Labour are more likely to want to support PR whether through seeing that it'll benefit them relative to the Tories, using it to get supporters of minor parties on side or just as the 'fairer side'.

 

But even with it changed it won't suddenly be the saviour UK progressives are hoping for, just as likely to have Conservatives and Farage remnants teaming up, and in fact a solid run of right coalitions is quite likely, particularly in the case of Scottish independence.

 

If you want to dislodge the Tory stranglehold over England, you're going to have to do a lot more than changing the voting systems, you need to change the culture of patriotic socially conservative individualism as well. While that's there, as bad as the Tories get, too many people will still break for them over anyone else.

If you want to dislodge the Tory stranglehold over England, you're going to have to do a lot more than changing the voting systems, you need to change the culture of patriotic socially conservative individualism as well. While that's there, as bad as the Tories get, too many people will still break for them over anyone else.

 

"Would it not be be simpler, if the government simply dissolved the people, and elected another?”

 

Going slightly off-topic here, but I would dispute the idea that social conservatism is individualistic, I would argue that it is very much the opposite, in terms of its support for institutions, social groups, etc.

 

Also, as I've mentioned before, in each election the biggest group of voters up for grabs in each election cycle are the "communitarian" voters, those who are to the left of economics & welfare, and, for lack of a better term, culturally conservative, who are put off by Labour on cultural grounds, and the Tories on economic & welfare grounds (although the Tories have massively shifted culturally to the left as well) . Appealing to these groups, who are not going to go away, is the key to winning a majority, and it is much easier for the Tories to move left on economics, and nigh on impossible for Labour to move even a squeak to the right on cultural issues.

At least the Tories can't use that flawed AV referendum as evidence the public want FPTP ahead of all alternatives.

We've seen how, over the last six years, they've twisted the results of the last two referendums so you know they will.

 

I think the problem with PR first and foremost is public salience, which is actually needed before building and sustaining support.

"Would it not be be simpler, if the government simply dissolved the people, and elected another?”

 

Going slightly off-topic here, but I would dispute the idea that social conservatism is individualistic, I would argue that it is very much the opposite, in terms of its support for institutions, social groups, etc.

 

Also, as I've mentioned before, in each election the biggest group of voters up for grabs in each election cycle are the "communitarian" voters, those who are to the left of economics & welfare, and, for lack of a better term, culturally conservative, who are put off by Labour on cultural grounds, and the Tories on economic & welfare grounds (although the Tories have massively shifted culturally to the left as well) . Appealing to these groups, who are not going to go away, is the key to winning a majority, and it is much easier for the Tories to move left on economics, and nigh on impossible for Labour to move even a squeak to the right on cultural issues.

 

I'd go for the line that social conservatism makes use of the individualism promoted strongly by liberalism and ties it into a network of small social groups that it is acceptable to support, but without a support for the wider society particularly if parts of that society don't meet a bar of values held dear to the individual. And English people are pretty bad at viewing the wider society in a healthy way.

 

I do see the idea of culturally conservative/left economic people being key voters often and... See I think that the cohort of these communitarians is changing slowly in a one key way that will upset the balance. They're getting less patriotic, which will give Labour some breathing room on the cultural axis. And if their socioeconomic circumstances continue to get worse that should bring the Tories to a natural limit on the left economic push. I also think this group is smaller than often touted, and will continue to get smaller as society gets more progressive.

It used to be assumed that a party that presided over the break-up of the UK would suffer serious electoral damage, possibly lasting many years. It now looks as if the so-called Conservative & Unionist Party could, in the short-term at least, survive an event that completely contradicts their name and, by extension, their raison d'etre. OTOH, a successful English-speaking progressive country immediately to our north could eventually convince the English that such a thing is possible. Far more English people will have friends and family in Scotland than have contacts in mainland Europe and the historic links and common language mean it would be hard completely to ignore events there.

In other opinion polling news -

 

@1276942999277178881

 

I can't think of anything notable that Starmer's done in the past week to see his approval rating soar so much, but Labour should be pleased with that. I can't think of the last time that a Labour leader polled better than the Tory leader. Probably 2013/14 with Ed Miliband/David Cameron.

The Tories remain overwhelmingly hostile to PR and there is little prospect of that changing any time soon. Labour, OTOH, are more sympathetic. There are still plenty of die-hard supporters of FPTP while others are more pragmatic. It was, after all, a Labour government that introduced PR for the Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and London assembly.

 

As things stand, the chances of majority Labour government at the next election are slim although that may, of course, change over the next four years. They could, though, be the largest party without a majority. It then becomes a matter of whether the Lib Dems are in a position to insist on PR as a condition for a coalition. I'm assuming that there has been no Scottish independence referendum and that the SNP's number one priority would be that they get that referendum.

 

Of course, if Scotland look like leaving the UK in this decade, Labour support for PR may increase as their chances of winning sufficient seats in England and Wales to form a majority any time soon are bleak. Of course, that all assumes that the electorate don't finally cotton on to just how dreadful today's Tory party is.

 

Remember PR was out in place in the devolved assemblies to prevent a dominant government. Didn't work too well in Scotland though.

Remember PR was out in place in the devolved assemblies to prevent a dominant government. Didn't work too well in Scotland though.

Yes, that was one of the reasons behind it. They wanted to avoid accusations of creating a permanent Labour fiefdom in Scotland. That worked well.

Yes, that was one of the reasons behind it. They wanted to avoid accusations of creating a permanent Labour fiefdom in Scotland. That worked well.

And it was also designed to prevent any form of independence referendum

In other opinion polling news -

 

@1276942999277178881

 

I can't think of anything notable that Starmer's done in the past week to see his approval rating soar so much, but Labour should be pleased with that. I can't think of the last time that a Labour leader polled better than the Tory leader. Probably 2013/14 with Ed Miliband/David Cameron.

 

The answer is June 2019, which feels like a lifetime ago I know: https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-19th-june-2019/

 

Corbyn: 18%

May: 17%

 

I guess Starmer hasn't had as much mud thrown at him yet by the media, but it is a matter of time, unless he turns out to be a yes man like Jenrick who poses no threat to property billionaires whatsoever.

I'm still convinced that Sunak will be the one leading the party into the next election in 2025.

 

It just doesn't make sense post-Brexit for the Tories, especially with all this COVID Johnson baggage, to take that risk.

Edited June 28, 20204 yr by blacksquare

In other opinion polling news -

 

@1276942999277178881

 

I can't think of anything notable that Starmer's done in the past week to see his approval rating soar so much, but Labour should be pleased with that. I can't think of the last time that a Labour leader polled better than the Tory leader. Probably 2013/14 with Ed Miliband/David Cameron.

 

PMQs perhaps? Starmer has been doing quite well with those. Hopefully he'll continue to extend his lead over Johnson. Things will be interesting come later this year. Furlough scheme ending, possible second wave and Brexit.

I'm still convinced that Sunak will be the one leading the party into the next election in 2025.

 

It just doesn't make sense post-Brexit for the Tories, especially with all this COVID Johnson baggage, to take that risk.

 

That's a good point Sunak could be this eras Stanley Baldwin.

I think that Sunak is a seriously impressive and smart politican (though it may be the incompetence of Johnson that flatters this opinion), unfortunately he demeaned himself somewhat by falling in line to defend the indefensible and selfish actions of Dominic Cummings, but if you ignore those transgressions he has certainly won a lot of support with his successful interventions as Chancellor particularly since Covid-19.

 

I definitely think that Boris Johnson will have either resigned through boredom or been forced out long before 2024 and Sunak is the most likely candidate to replace him, yes.

Wasn't sure where to put this.

 

From The New Eouropean.

 

"Boris Johnson would lose an election held today. Despite holding a steady four-point lead in recent polls, the Conservatives would lose most of their majority won in December, around 70 seats. They would remain the largest party in parliament, but with too few MPs to stay in office. And just as their huge gains in Labour’s traditional “Red Wall” seats delivered Boris Johnson’s big majority last December, it is a seven per cent swing to Labour in these seats – almost double the national average – that would force the Tories into opposition. Keir Starmer would probably become prime minister, albeit at the head of a minority or coalition government. The main figures are shown in the chart below.

 

No, I have not commissioned a special poll, peered into a crystal ball or consulted Mystic Meg; and yes, you are right, none of the recent poll stories in the media point to that result. However, the data are in the public domain. They can be crunched by anyone with a little time and an appetite for playing with Excel.

 

The data come from Opinium’s polls for the Observer. Each week they question 2,000 people throughout Britain. As well as providing figures for the main subgroups, such as age, gender, region and past vote, they give results for different kinds of constituency. The key group comprises the 54 seats in England and Wales that the Tories gained from Labour. Anyone can look at these any week.

 

However, only 200 or so respondents each week live in one of these seats. The margin of error is enormous. Nobody should pay much attention to a single week’s figures from such a small sub-group – and, as far as I know, nobody does.

 

How, then, do I conclude that Johnson is in so much trouble? Here’s how.

 

First, party loyalties have been unusually stable for the past month. The last four Opinium surveys have reported overall Conservative leads of five, four, four and four points. This makes it possible to combine the data from all four polls to produce an overall sample of 8,000. This reduces the margin of error in subgroups of individual surveys.

 

Second, Opinium asks people not only how they would vote today but how they voted last December. In the seats gained by the Tories, respondents across Opinium’s four latest surveys recall voting: Conservative 48%, Labour 38%. This is close to the actual total vote from the 54 seats: Conservative 47%, Labour 39%.

 

Third, by comparing how people voted last December with how the same people would vote today, we can measure the swing in each group of seats. This shows that over the four weeks, respondents in the Red Wall seats are substantially more likely to say they have returned to Labour than respondents elsewhere."

 

I see the SNP are now equal to the Greens and Liberals in the UK national poll on 6% 😅

 

They will be the new 'enemy within' for the establishment in the next 10 years to stop independence no doubt.

I’m suspect of the Scottish subsample on that tho as were like 8% of the population and as much as I firmly back them we ain’t getting 75% of the vote

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 44% (+2)

LAB: 36% (-2)

LDEM: 6% (-)

GRN: 6% (+2)

 

via @OpiniumResearch

, 15 - 17 Jul

Chgs. w/ 10 Jul

 

 

"Any other leader [of the Labour Party] would be 20 points ahead in the polls against this shambolic government." (The Observer - 2017-2019)

Haha indeed the usual suspects have different excuses now they have an establishment man in the oppositions office.

Yes, funny that. Almost as if they were being disingenuous when they said it..!! Surely not.